Weekly Technical Analysis – Apr 2~6

EURUSD.        Overall this week bias of EURUSD is neutral. Presently EURUSD stands at 1.2315$ and although an upward run is possible and expected but unless daily price close above 1.2555$ the bias remains neutral. Any upward movement may provide an opportunity to short sell around 1.2400$ with a stop loss at 1.2450$ and a target price of 1.2270$. If daily prices happen to close below 1.2153$ then bias will turn from neutral to bearish.

GBPUSD.        Overall this week bias of GBPUSD is strongly bearish. Only short sell at highs and their closing at lows are recommended while buy trades are NOT recommended. This week GBPUSD is expected to range between 1.4115$ to 1.3715$ extendable to 1.3575$. The stop loss for all short trades stands at 1.4285$. However, note that daily price close if any higher than 1.4185 will weaken our recommendations.

EURGBP.        Overall EURGBP is neutral to slightly bullish. EURGBP pair has been range bound in channel since Sep 2017 and presently moving from lower bound to upper bound of channel. Presently it is priced at 0.8779$ and is likely to remain range bound for this week and may be even longer, the target price for this week is 0.8839$. Its range is confined to 0.8950~0.8665. After touching the lower bound of channel it is now gradually inching towards upper bound of channel at 0.8950$.

USDJPY.          Last week engulfing candle has put some life into this pair. Last week closing price stands at 106.26$ at a critical threshold with no certainty of direction. But keeping in view USD crosses and last week performance of USDJPY, it has a chance to approach 108.00$ but hopes to do will fade if prices fall as low as 105.30$. Trade with caution is advised in this pair.

USDCHF.        Long & short-term bias for USDCHF is bullish. Last week, engulfing weekly candle further strengthens the bullish bias. Presently this pair stands at 0.9534$ and gradually making daily higher highs and higher lows. Its short-term bullish bias will stay intact as long as USDCHF trades higher than 0.9320$ while long term bullish bias will hold good as long as this pair stands higher than 0.9149$. This weeks achievable targets stand at 0.9595$ and 0.9665$. Buy at lows and close on highs with No selling short is recommended.

GOLD.             Long-term bias of gold remains bullish, however, short-term bias for this week is bearish. Gold closed on Friday at 1224.94$. Unless the gold daily prices close above 1247.00$, it is heading towards 1298.50$ from where bullish moves may come back. For this week, it is advised to short sell gold between 1228.00$~1233.00$ with stop loss at 1248.00$ and profit taking gradually at 1317.00$, 1309.00$ and finally at 1300.50$. Below 1300.00$ buy trades are strongly recommended with stop loss at 1284.00$.

Note:   Please be watchful of fundamental NFP news on Friday 6 Apr 2018. This news causes enough volatility to validate or invalidate the technical analysis within minutes and eventually build totally new scenarios.

Gold Technical Analysis – March 26

Last week gold moved from a low of 1307$ to a high of 1350$ before closing around 1346$ but the price action did lack some volume support. The present gold price at 1346$ stands right at the verge of breaking the neckline of daily head & shoulder pattern, where if 3 conditions are satisfied then gold is a buy & buy for long term target of 1460$. The 3 conditions are as follows:

  1. Upward momentum in price action especially breakout above 1357$ with minimum target reaching 1366$.
  2. Daily close higher than 1357$.
  3. NO retracement below 1324$.

In addition to breakout of neckline of daily H&S pattern around 1346 the gold price needs to breakout from falling flag pattern, which might push the price of gold back from 1357$ right down to 1298$.

Trading Strategy.

  1. Buy gold between 1335-1340$ only if prices retrace back without making its first run for 1355$ with stop loss at 1324$. Then close at least half the trade around 1355$ and retain other half for any possible upward breakout while moving the stop loss from 1324$ to its level buy price to prevent any loss.

Alternately, if prices fail to break above 1357$ with momentum and start to move down then short sell around 1345$ with stop loss at 1358$ and a target around 1304-1298$.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis – 5 Mar 2018

 

  1. Gold. This weeks post on gold technical analysis supersedes our previous post on 26 Feb 2018. Although, the long term target price of Gold remains unchanged and still stands higher or close to 1407.00 $ but it is definitely out of scope for trading week ending on Fri 9 Mar 2018 especially as long as price of gold remains below 1360$. Daily as well 4 hourly chart patterns fueled by high weekly RSI all point to least one more downward swing. The low of 1303$ is expected to be re-tested and if 1296$ price is broken then a low of 1270$ is likely to be touched. Most plausible trade of the week may be to short sell around 1335-1343$ with a stop loss at 1360$ and target /exit price of 1309$.
  2. EURO/GBP. This pair has been range bound for the last 6 months and now trading at its upper bound. Any further move up and especially any daily close above 0.8980 will put its first target price at 0.9040 and any further move higher is a Strong BUY Signal for a long term with stop loss at 0.8900 and a second target price of 0.9300$ and any further break above with momentum (not expected in this week) will make the 3rd target as 0.9850$. Conversely if prices rebound low from upper range limit 0.8950-0.8980 $ then short sell with target as 0.8780$ is the valid option.
  3. GBP/USD.   Unless, this pair heads above 1.4000 it is exposed to downward move with its first target at 1.3695$ then 2nd Target at 1.3605$. So it is advised to short sell at high around 1.3870$ while keeping the stop loss at 1.4010 and close the trade at advised low prices during the week. Buying at lows is not recommended in this pair.

Weekly Technical Analysis – 26 Feb 2018

                 Head & Shoulder pattern has formed in 14 day RSI in Gold chart. This week’s start Buy rate is 1328.95 $ and the expected Target Sell price is 1405.00, be ready to capture 760 gold pips against a risk to lose 250 pips with a stop loss at 1303.95 $. However, it may take little longer time from few days to a few weeks to reach the target price with quite a few zig-zag movement of price. So fasten your seat belts before you take a long ride.