Week Ahead ~ 22-28 Oct

EURUSD

The pair seems to find its support at 1.1431. Next few days in the week will determine the near term outlook on EURUSD. Last week pair closed at 1.1515 with a high of 1.1621 and low of 1.1433. As long as the pair trades below 1.1660 our short and long-term bias on this pair is negative with nearest target at 1.1340 breaking below sets new target at 1.1219 while extended target is 1.1157. However, the moment this pair starts to trade higher than 1.1660 our bias on EURUSD will change to positive with near target at 1.1850 and extended target at 1.1995.

 

GBPUSD

We continue to maintain our short-term & long-term bias as neutral to slightly negative until the pair makes a move higher than 1.3298, which of course will change the scenario altogether with a near target of 1.3480. Last week the pair made a high of 1.3236 and a low of 1.3011 and closed at 1.3067. In this week, it is expected that GBPUSD may remain range bound between 1.3210 and 1.2840. Until a clear break out above 1.3298 we advise sell on highs with near target as 1.2910 and extended target at 1.2850. The terms of Brexit deal will determine the long-term direction of this pair.

 

EURGBP

We have a neutral to slightly negative bias in EURGBP and expect a range bound behaviour in this week between 0.8930 and 0.8700. Until the pair trades higher than 0.8995 sell on highs and buy back on lows is advised. The pair closed at 0.8811 in last week. EURGBP may try a run towards 0.8900-0.8930 during the week where it may be a good price to short sell with a stop loss at 0.9010 and target at 0.8710 and extended target at 0.8635.

 

USDJPY

In the first 2 weeks of Oct 2018, the pair had a free fall from a strong resistance at 1.1453 till it halted at 1.1162 while last week it closed at 112.53. Our short-term bias has turned neutral to slightly positive for this pair while hopes for long-term target at 117.35 are still intact. Until the pair starts to trade and stays higher than 113.39, any hopes of achieving a target of 117.35 are far from reach and will start to diminish if pair falls below 111.60. In this week USDJPY is expected to make a run toward 113.40 where it may fail in its first attempt.

 

BRENT OIL

The short-term and long-term bias of Brent oil is neutral to negative until the pair starts to trade higher than 86.60. It closed at 79.49 after making a high of 81.59 and a low of 78.35 in last week. It is expected that during this week Brent oil will try to make a correction move up to 84.20, where a short sell is recommended with a stop loss of 86.60 and a target of 75.25.

 

XAUUSD (GOLD)

The short-term bias of gold is positive while the long-term bias of gold is neutral to slightly negative until pair starts to trade higher than 1268.00. The spot gold closed last week at 1226.38. Any lower moves moves may be treated as opportunity to buy with stop loss at 1213.00 and short-term target at 1247.00. However, the pair is expected to bounce downward from 1249.00 and may be a good opportunity to short sell with a stop loss at 1267.50 with a long-term target of 1150.00.

Weekly Technical Analysis ~ 1-7 Oct 2018

EURUSD

Short-term bias is neutral with a very minor positive potential to touch 1.2010 but only & only if the pair moves higher than last week’s high of 1.1814, while long-term bias seems negative towards 1.0837. Last week the pair closed at 1.1603. This week the pair is expected to move and fro between 1.1534 ~ 1.1683. However, if the pair makes a move below 1.1534 especially 1.1507 then short & long-term biases will become negative and the last week’s high of 1.1815 may become the max ceiling for coming weeks.

GBPUSD

Short-term & long-term bias is neutral to negative until the pair makes a move higher than 1.3298. Last week the pair made a high of 1.3217 and a low of 1.2999 and closed at 1.3028. In this week, it is expected that GBPUSD may try to make a move towards 1.3217 but it is expected to fail short of 1.3180, consider that as an opportunity to short sell with a stop loss at 1.3230 and a target of 1.2917 in mind.

EURGBP

After a weekly closing above its channel support line and its uptrend line, this pair closed last week at 89.04. Here onwards, I feel that short & long-term bias is bullish unless this pair breaks below 88.70, and next if this pair happens to fall below 88.47 the scenario then will give way to bears. As soon as this pair starts trading above 89.14, it is a strong buy with a stop loss at 88.65 and its 1sttarget at 90.14, 2ndtarget at 90.39 and 3rdtarget at 90.85.

USDJPY

Short & long-term bias is strongly bullish. This pair closed last week at 113.68. Its long-term target stands at 1.2128 while its short-term target stands at 114.50. However, this pair faces tough resistances between 114.10 and 114.73.  Its support stands at 113.15. Any lower dip may be treated as an opportunity to buy.

BRENT OIL

The short-term bias of Brent oil is neutral to positive while long-term bias is bullish. It closed at 82.90 after making a high of 83.31 in last week. Note that any move higher than 83.31 and its daily close above 83.15 will set the new target at 86.31. However, before continuing with its bullish run, the Brent oil may test its support levels by turning its very short-term bias negative for this week. The first support level is at 81.90, then 2ndat 80.75 and finally 3rdand strong support exists at 79.40, breaking which will totally change the bias of Brent Oil from bulls to bears.

XAUUSD (GOLD)

The short-term bias of gold is neutral to slightly negative while the long-term bias of gold remains negative until it crosses above 1215.00. The spot gold closed last week at 1191.51. Any higher moves may be treated as opportunity to sell with stop loss at 1216.50 and short-term target at 1273.50. It may test 1172.75 during this week before making any other serious attempt towards breaking 1215. Any break below 1160.00 will open new downward vistas at least up to 1133.00.

Weekly Technical Analysis – Apr 2~6

EURUSD.        Overall this week bias of EURUSD is neutral. Presently EURUSD stands at 1.2315$ and although an upward run is possible and expected but unless daily price close above 1.2555$ the bias remains neutral. Any upward movement may provide an opportunity to short sell around 1.2400$ with a stop loss at 1.2450$ and a target price of 1.2270$. If daily prices happen to close below 1.2153$ then bias will turn from neutral to bearish.

GBPUSD.        Overall this week bias of GBPUSD is strongly bearish. Only short sell at highs and their closing at lows are recommended while buy trades are NOT recommended. This week GBPUSD is expected to range between 1.4115$ to 1.3715$ extendable to 1.3575$. The stop loss for all short trades stands at 1.4285$. However, note that daily price close if any higher than 1.4185 will weaken our recommendations.

EURGBP.        Overall EURGBP is neutral to slightly bullish. EURGBP pair has been range bound in channel since Sep 2017 and presently moving from lower bound to upper bound of channel. Presently it is priced at 0.8779$ and is likely to remain range bound for this week and may be even longer, the target price for this week is 0.8839$. Its range is confined to 0.8950~0.8665. After touching the lower bound of channel it is now gradually inching towards upper bound of channel at 0.8950$.

USDJPY.          Last week engulfing candle has put some life into this pair. Last week closing price stands at 106.26$ at a critical threshold with no certainty of direction. But keeping in view USD crosses and last week performance of USDJPY, it has a chance to approach 108.00$ but hopes to do will fade if prices fall as low as 105.30$. Trade with caution is advised in this pair.

USDCHF.        Long & short-term bias for USDCHF is bullish. Last week, engulfing weekly candle further strengthens the bullish bias. Presently this pair stands at 0.9534$ and gradually making daily higher highs and higher lows. Its short-term bullish bias will stay intact as long as USDCHF trades higher than 0.9320$ while long term bullish bias will hold good as long as this pair stands higher than 0.9149$. This weeks achievable targets stand at 0.9595$ and 0.9665$. Buy at lows and close on highs with No selling short is recommended.

GOLD.             Long-term bias of gold remains bullish, however, short-term bias for this week is bearish. Gold closed on Friday at 1224.94$. Unless the gold daily prices close above 1247.00$, it is heading towards 1298.50$ from where bullish moves may come back. For this week, it is advised to short sell gold between 1228.00$~1233.00$ with stop loss at 1248.00$ and profit taking gradually at 1317.00$, 1309.00$ and finally at 1300.50$. Below 1300.00$ buy trades are strongly recommended with stop loss at 1284.00$.

Note:   Please be watchful of fundamental NFP news on Friday 6 Apr 2018. This news causes enough volatility to validate or invalidate the technical analysis within minutes and eventually build totally new scenarios.

Gold Technical Analysis – March 26

Last week gold moved from a low of 1307$ to a high of 1350$ before closing around 1346$ but the price action did lack some volume support. The present gold price at 1346$ stands right at the verge of breaking the neckline of daily head & shoulder pattern, where if 3 conditions are satisfied then gold is a buy & buy for long term target of 1460$. The 3 conditions are as follows:

  1. Upward momentum in price action especially breakout above 1357$ with minimum target reaching 1366$.
  2. Daily close higher than 1357$.
  3. NO retracement below 1324$.

In addition to breakout of neckline of daily H&S pattern around 1346 the gold price needs to breakout from falling flag pattern, which might push the price of gold back from 1357$ right down to 1298$.

Trading Strategy.

  1. Buy gold between 1335-1340$ only if prices retrace back without making its first run for 1355$ with stop loss at 1324$. Then close at least half the trade around 1355$ and retain other half for any possible upward breakout while moving the stop loss from 1324$ to its level buy price to prevent any loss.

Alternately, if prices fail to break above 1357$ with momentum and start to move down then short sell around 1345$ with stop loss at 1358$ and a target around 1304-1298$.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis – 5 Mar 2018

 

  1. Gold. This weeks post on gold technical analysis supersedes our previous post on 26 Feb 2018. Although, the long term target price of Gold remains unchanged and still stands higher or close to 1407.00 $ but it is definitely out of scope for trading week ending on Fri 9 Mar 2018 especially as long as price of gold remains below 1360$. Daily as well 4 hourly chart patterns fueled by high weekly RSI all point to least one more downward swing. The low of 1303$ is expected to be re-tested and if 1296$ price is broken then a low of 1270$ is likely to be touched. Most plausible trade of the week may be to short sell around 1335-1343$ with a stop loss at 1360$ and target /exit price of 1309$.
  2. EURO/GBP. This pair has been range bound for the last 6 months and now trading at its upper bound. Any further move up and especially any daily close above 0.8980 will put its first target price at 0.9040 and any further move higher is a Strong BUY Signal for a long term with stop loss at 0.8900 and a second target price of 0.9300$ and any further break above with momentum (not expected in this week) will make the 3rd target as 0.9850$. Conversely if prices rebound low from upper range limit 0.8950-0.8980 $ then short sell with target as 0.8780$ is the valid option.
  3. GBP/USD.   Unless, this pair heads above 1.4000 it is exposed to downward move with its first target at 1.3695$ then 2nd Target at 1.3605$. So it is advised to short sell at high around 1.3870$ while keeping the stop loss at 1.4010 and close the trade at advised low prices during the week. Buying at lows is not recommended in this pair.