Week Ahead ~ 22-28 Oct


The pair seems to find its support at 1.1431. Next few days in the week will determine the near term outlook on EURUSD. Last week pair closed at 1.1515 with a high of 1.1621 and low of 1.1433. As long as the pair trades below 1.1660 our short and long-term bias on this pair is negative with nearest target at 1.1340 breaking below sets new target at 1.1219 while extended target is 1.1157. However, the moment this pair starts to trade higher than 1.1660 our bias on EURUSD will change to positive with near target at 1.1850 and extended target at 1.1995.



We continue to maintain our short-term & long-term bias as neutral to slightly negative until the pair makes a move higher than 1.3298, which of course will change the scenario altogether with a near target of 1.3480. Last week the pair made a high of 1.3236 and a low of 1.3011 and closed at 1.3067. In this week, it is expected that GBPUSD may remain range bound between 1.3210 and 1.2840. Until a clear break out above 1.3298 we advise sell on highs with near target as 1.2910 and extended target at 1.2850. The terms of Brexit deal will determine the long-term direction of this pair.



We have a neutral to slightly negative bias in EURGBP and expect a range bound behaviour in this week between 0.8930 and 0.8700. Until the pair trades higher than 0.8995 sell on highs and buy back on lows is advised. The pair closed at 0.8811 in last week. EURGBP may try a run towards 0.8900-0.8930 during the week where it may be a good price to short sell with a stop loss at 0.9010 and target at 0.8710 and extended target at 0.8635.



In the first 2 weeks of Oct 2018, the pair had a free fall from a strong resistance at 1.1453 till it halted at 1.1162 while last week it closed at 112.53. Our short-term bias has turned neutral to slightly positive for this pair while hopes for long-term target at 117.35 are still intact. Until the pair starts to trade and stays higher than 113.39, any hopes of achieving a target of 117.35 are far from reach and will start to diminish if pair falls below 111.60. In this week USDJPY is expected to make a run toward 113.40 where it may fail in its first attempt.



The short-term and long-term bias of Brent oil is neutral to negative until the pair starts to trade higher than 86.60. It closed at 79.49 after making a high of 81.59 and a low of 78.35 in last week. It is expected that during this week Brent oil will try to make a correction move up to 84.20, where a short sell is recommended with a stop loss of 86.60 and a target of 75.25.



The short-term bias of gold is positive while the long-term bias of gold is neutral to slightly negative until pair starts to trade higher than 1268.00. The spot gold closed last week at 1226.38. Any lower moves moves may be treated as opportunity to buy with stop loss at 1213.00 and short-term target at 1247.00. However, the pair is expected to bounce downward from 1249.00 and may be a good opportunity to short sell with a stop loss at 1267.50 with a long-term target of 1150.00.